Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
