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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

But the latest race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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