🔗 Share this article

Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd